The Wall_Spring 2023_Issue 9

Igor Elmanov, (he/him), S11, explores “the fall of Europe” through comparing Europe today to the state of Europe postWW2

Artwork: Sienna Harriss, LVI

Ever sinceWW2, Europe has been in a state of perpetual decline, something that can be seen through its contrast to the USA, the global superpower of today.A continent which ruled the world for close to 500 years has now been reduced to only a husk of its former self.The turning point?WW2, an event so traumatic that to this day it affects the decision making of our politicians, even when the generation that fought in it is on the brink of disappearance. Everything thatWestern Europe is doing now contrasts with what it was doing pre-war.The Europe of yore was nationalistic, capitalist and militaristic. Now, it has surrendered the initiative on most fronts, be that militarily, politically or economically.The use of any force is now seen as unacceptable, leading to an inflexibility in the response thatWestern European nations make to the problems presented to them. Europe’s more aggression-averse approach has led the continent in the wrong direction if its aim is to protect peace. Name any metric at which Europe was successful pre-war. Its share of the global GDP has been declining, whilst America has steadily maintained its percentage.The London Stock Exchange hasn’t had a meaningful or innovative IPO in decades, and inventors have been emigrating to the USA.The unemployment rate is in the double digits, especially among the young adult population, whilst the population is plummeting due to the low birth rates. Not only that, but Europe has lost

practically all of the geopolitical power it previously had.After all, NATO owes its strength not to Europe but to the USA, with its high expenditure on the military. Consider the fact that every time Europe has been in crisis, the USA has been there to resolve it. For instance, the Northern Ireland Protocol talks were chaired by an Ameri can official; theYugoslavian wars descend ed into a genocide until the USA began getting involved; and the USA bailed out the European banks during the 2008 financial crisis. Europe has lost its ability to be autonomous, evidencing its decline in political power. I see this as modern Europeans growing passive and living off the successes of their ancestors before them, who used their toil to build a truly great continent, whilst actively going against the very structures that brought them there.All in all, the future looks bleak.We should also expect the ageing crisis to hit critical mass in the next 50 years or so.The danger of this cannot be underestimated.A country where a large proportion of its population is elderly stops innovation due to all its wealth money being spent on welfare programmes that make a forlorn attempt to avoid stagnation (case study: Japan).This does not bode well as, historically, countries where there is widespread poverty (in this case through the funnelling of money to the old) generally leads to the creation of factions (Royalists and Parliamentarians,

the Reds and theWhites), causing great polarisation and thereby social decay.This coincides with the current food crisis, with African nations to longer able to supply fertiliser, making their lands far less productive, leading to hunger, and therefore potentially armed conflict.This would cause mass migration across the Mediterranean, the likes of which we have never seen before, and European countries could only deal with by the mass closing of borders into Europe. This can be seen already with Poland considering building a wall along the border with Russia to ‘keep out Asian and African immigrants’.With the rise of far-right political parties, it would be unsurprising to see the EU fall apart, as nationalistic sentiments grow in strength. This will lead to a reversal to the competitive environment that was an integral part of the EU before the world wars. If not war - one needs too many young people, who aren’t available – for that, we can surely expect trade disputes, diplomatic squabbles and the creation of alliances that might provoke instability. It is truly sad to see, but the OldWorld has been falling into decline for some time now, and the spheres of power are rapidly shifting to China, al though that is a topic for another article. Although Europe is still of global impor tance, the reality is that this is lessening, and Europe can only expect to descend into an arena of competing nations clawing for the remnants of Europe’s power.

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