The Wall_Spring 2023_Issue 9

Stefan Maricas, (he/him), S7, gives predictions of the potential outcomes for Putin’s war as well as providing historical context behind the war in Ukraine

As the war in Ukraine progresses, Russia’s morale is collapsing. And while Ukraine continues its everlasting counter-attack on Russia, we see that Putin has been taking desperate measures to stop the devasting offensive on its occupied territories.The question is, why does Putin want Ukraine so badly and what will happen if Russia resorts to nuclear weapons? Many people think that Putin wants to restore the USSR or another form of Russian empire.This is not necessarily true, but Putin has said that the reason for Russia invading Ukraine is because of Ukraine’s pro-Western attitude, hinting to similar ideologies that we have seen in the past. Putin fears that Ukraine might join the two greatWest ern alliances (EU and NATO). Since

the counter - offensive, Putin has been taking things into his own hands. Recently, he held a rigged referendum, which determined whether the occupied territories of Ukraine should join Russia. To no-one’s surprise they all ‘voted’ to join Russia.The most recent concern regarding Putin’s war is his threat to es calate his attack into a nuclear war. In my view, things are escalating too fast. Russia has some advantages and disadvantages from geographical point of view. Russia has very little access to warm oceans and. as a consequence of this. most of their routes for trades have to pass through straits which are occupied by European countries, among them the Strait of Istanbul and the Danish Straits. As the war progresses, it becomes increasingly likely that

Russia will be deprived of access to these important trade routes.Their advantage in combat however is Siberia. When it becomes winter, they have a huge advantage in terms of troops due to the special forces they have who can fight in the cold. But Siberia comes with a disadvantage.The Russian army depends heavily on its network railways for travelling across Siberia and other parts of their vast country.This means that if the railway gets damaged then the army will struggle when travelling.The eastern part of Russia is also vulnerable to attack, specifically from the USA via Alaska, in part due to the surprising lack of troops Russia has occupying this area. them to join the war.This is a serious threat since NATO and Russia are both nuclear powers and a conflict between them might spark a third world war. The reality then for citizens of NATO member countries is that they could face a drastic change in their usual lifestyle. Children might have to be evacuated to a different country or to the countryside. Theoretically, citizens of NATO member countries could even be enlisted to fight in such a war.This has already begun to happen in Russia itself, with a civil mobilisation of 300.000 men.The real question, of course, is: will History repeat itself again? Ultimately, aWWIII scenario is very unlikely; this is because Putin is aware of the consequences that await him and Russia as a whole if he chooses to escalate the war in Ukraine. However, Ukraine will continue its counter-offensive to regain its land in an attempt to maintain its sovereignty. NATO has warned Russia that any use of nuclear weaponry would force

Artwork: Yeva Kebabdjian, LVI

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